The Trump Administration’s decision to almost start a war with both Iraq and Iran only make sense in light of the belief, shared by many in the foreign policy establishment, that the world only has room for one sovereign nation.
It’s a
bit unsettling to make your New Year’s predictions, insist that they be taken
more seriously than everyone else’s because they work from the assumption that
the most mundane outcome is the most likely one, and then, the very next day,
find that one of your predictions is on the verge of being dramatically
disproven.
Because that’s
the kind of thing that happens in a world with more than one sovereign nation.
And I sure hope that it’s what will happen now, once tempers have cooled –
after all, it’s a hell of a lot better than the alternative.
But
that’s what happened last week when, among other things, I ventured to foretell
that the Trump Administration would continue to avoid war with Iran.
Then, on
the evening of 2 January, I heard that news that American forces had killed
Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani in an airstrike in Baghdad.
Conservative
pundits rejoiced. “President Trump has killed a notorious terrorist, avenged
American blood, and made the world a safer place.”
Whether General
Soleimani is a terrorist is debatable. The man had a long and illustrious
career of travelling around the Middle East arming and training various Shi’a
militias to fight in the endless proxy wars that dominate that part of the
world. Sometimes, these militias fought on the same side as the United
States; sometimes they fought on the opposite side.
Though
don’t expect to get that impression from American news sites. Ever since last
Friday, I keep going back to SputnikNews because it has offered detailed, day
by day coverage of both sides of this controversy, unlike a domestic news
source, which will usually give you one or two heavily biased articles before turning
its attention back to football, or the Golden Globes, or what have you.
Back to
the killing of General Soleimani: it was ostensibly done in retalation for an
attack on the American embassy in Baghdad by a Shi’a mob, in which nobody was
killed. The mob attack was in retaliation by airstrikes on various targets in
Iraq that killed 25 members of that country’s leading Shi’a militia. The
airstrikes were in retaliation for a rocket attack on an American base that
killed an American contractor. You get the idea.
A lot of
Democrats are upset with what President Trump did because assassinating an
Iranian general is a good way to start a war, something which the President is
not supposed to do without Congressional approval. Few Republicans share that point
of view. Ron Paul does, but Ron Paul was going to stand up for the Constitution
no matter what.
But this
gets even more disturbing when you look at the details. America is supposedly
in a military alliance with Iraq against ISIS, which is why we have troops in
Iraq in the first place. But we didn’t have the Iraqi government’s approval to
assassinate Soleimani in Baghdad, or even to carry out the bombings that killed
25 Iraqi militiamen in the previous round of tit-for-tat.
Soleimani
was in Baghdad at the invitation of the Iraqi Prime Minister. People who know a
lot about the Middle East weren’t surprised by this, since the Iranian Quds
Force and the local militias which it supports have been Iraq’s biggest allies
in the fight against ISIS. And the fact that a senior Iraqi commander, Abu
Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in the airstrike alongside Soleimani only makes
matters worse.
When Iraq’s
parliament responded to the crisis by voting to expel all Americans from the
country, Donald Trump insisted that his men would never leave, but if they did,
Iraq would pay for it with even worse sanction than those under which Iran is
suffering. Then he tried to get the UN Security Council to pass a resolution
condoning what he did; Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif (another terrorist,
according to the US) was prohibited from coming to New York to speak for his
side. Nevertheless, the other members of the Security Council vetoed the hell
out of Trump’s resolution.
I
could keep on giving details of what has transpired over the last week, though
there’s hardly any need. It’s already clear enough that these events only make sense
once you have realized that the core doctrine of American foreign policy is
that there is only one sovereign nation.
Just
one sovereign nation – the world doesn’t have room for two or three or four.
Our
nation is the greatest nation on earth. (And it’s also the freest nation.)
When we feel
threatened, we strike back. We have no need to get the approval of our own
Congress to go to war. And why should we even try? If we declare war, then we
have to follow certain rules; if we don’t declare war, then whoever we’re
fighting against is simply a terrorist, and terrorists have no rights.
We
can kill them wherever we find them; there is no such thing as neutral soil. It
doesn’t matter if our target showed up to Baghdad to meet with the head of
government in a nation that we’re supposedly allied with. In fact, it doesn’t even
matter that most of the anti-ISIS coalition – the Iraqis, the Syrians, the
Russians, the Kurds, etc. – consider General Soleimani and his Quds force to be
valuable allies.
If we said
Soleimani was terrorist, then that was the last word anyone needed to hear. We didn’t
even need to consult with Britain and Germany, both of which stand to lose
lives if a new war breaks out, and both of which were quite upset that we
proceeded unilaterally.
The
one sovereign nation gets to regulate internal commerce, among its several
constituent states, just like its constitution says it can, and just like any
sovereign nation is expected to be able to do.
And it
also gets to regulate commerce between all the other nations in the world. If
citizens of two foreign nations do business with each other against its wishes,
then no matter where in the world they happen to be, they will always be at
risk of arrest and extradition to the one sovereign nation.
This is not going to end well for the nation that has set itself up as the world's overlord. Blindness to the rights
and interests of other countries is a good way to isolate oneself and turn allies
into foes, while adversaries who were once hostile toward one another are driven
into each other's arms. Russia had bad relations with China for most of the
two countries’ history, but over the last two decades, American imperialism has
driven them into close friendship. Iraq and Iran have experienced much the same
thing.
Now
I am sure that some of you, after reading all this, will be thinking about what
an anti-American screed I have just written, and wondering how someone who
calls himself a “patriot” could reveal his true colours as a terrorism
apologist. Why doesn’t this man care that American lives were lost?
Well,
I have friends and family in the US armed forces. And the events of the past
few days are terrifying to me, because I don’t want to see any of them die in a
war with Iran, a scenario which has just become a lot more likely.
Why
do you suppose that a good friend of mine, raised in a family of lifelong
Republicans, would join the military and, soon afterward, find himself admiring
Tulsi Gabbard? Is there no reason for this, or is it because seeing the
situation up close makes you realize that looking at the Middle East in the
traditional way – where everyone can be classified as either a subservient
vassal, or the villain of a James Bond movie – is a good way to get a lot of
your comrades killed?
People
who know the Middle East fairly well, like General Mattis, under whose watch
the present events could never have happened, understand that neither the Sunni-Shi’a
conflict, or really any of the ancient and venerable ethno-religious rivalries that divide the middle east, has
clear good guys or bad guys. If we choose to engage in proxy wars where that
rivalry is at issue, then we’re looking at morally dubious ground as far as the
eye can see.
One man’s
terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter, and one man’s warmonger is another’s
liberator. One of the details of Soleimani’s death that you won’t hear on
American news is that, the Sunday after he was killed, Christians in churches
across Syria held masses in honour of the martyrdom of the man who saved them
from being exterminated by ISIS.
America
certainly has the right to defend its people, but if the goal is to preserve
American lives, then we need to do so within the framework that Britain,
Germany, France, Russia, and most other players in this conflict are working under
– that is to say, we must act with the understanding that there is more than
one sovereign nation whose interests are at stake here.
The
sporadic attacks on America’s bases and embassy, by various Iraqi militias
throughout the years, should not be taken lightly. They probably weren’t
ordered from the top, but if the Iraqi government proves unwilling or unable to
defend American lives from the rogue elements within its own armed forces, then
we have certainly had the right to end our so-called alliance
with Iraq, withdraw our troops, and leave the Iraqis to fight ISIS without our
help. (Or without our hindrance, if that’s how they choose to see it.)

Inter arma enim silent leges --- and so is reason and cool thinking. We'll just have to sit this one out, and hope we don't get dragged into a real war. It's the main reason I was not a Trump supporter in 2016 ... my fear that his ignorance and impulsiveness would get us into an unnecessary war. You can back out of bad domestic policies, but you can't back out of a war.
ReplyDeleteDoug, thanks you for reading this one to the end - apparently few people are willing to swallow their patriotic assumptions enough to do that.
ReplyDeleteYou're right that Trump has his faults - and he did come pretty close to starting a war this time.
But can you imagine Hillary doing any better. Remember this is the woman who summed up her foreign policy's effect on Libya as "we came, we saw, he died."
Donald Trump is very far from a Ron Paul or a Tulsi Gabbard. But Hillary Clinton (and probably Biden as well) are even further out on the warmonger spectrum - they just do a better job of projecting the image of a level-headed person.
The US military recently fitting its bombers and subs with low yield tactical nuke devices will make WW3 more probable
ReplyDeleteI'm one of the people who doesn't buy into that cliché. If the US has recently modified its nuclear delivery systems at all (which I doubt - most news about that sort of thing is just clickbait) then it's not going to cause a war, any more than nuclear proliferation in the 1950s and 1960s caused a war. Nuclear-armed countries never go to war with one another, because the costs are simply too high.
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